As the US 2020 US Presidential race draws to a close on Tuesday, with polls opening on the morning of November 3^rd, ISRA takes a look at the market conditions around the election, and discusses how brokers can better prepare their businesses, and protect themselves from market shocks.  

Retail brokers generally state that around 75% of retail investors lose money - the majority of these losses are in the spread value of their trades (because they are trading on wide spreads) rather than because they call the market wrong. 

However, studies have shown that over the long-term (if you take out transaction costs and spreads), clients’ trading P&L is generally no better or worse than that of their brokers.

As market volatility persists, brokers have become increasing vigilant monitoring the risk of their clients’ potential (and realised) negative balance exposure following liquidation, but there is another side to liquidation risk that may be even more important for brokers to consider.

May volumes were very similar to April totals, but still far below the highs reached in February and March. Although volumes were in line with April, profits were far lower. Losses in oil suppressed profitability in the early weeks of May as the majority of retail clients held their long positions into the rally at the start of the month. Movements in indices later in May helped salvage respectable, though below average, overall profits for the month.

April saw broker volumes fall off significantly from the near-record numbers recorded in February and March. Profits, though down as well, were respectable as a result primarily of mid-month moves in oil markets that saw prices fall briefly into negative territory. Profits were also buoyed by movements in gold and US indices. Oil prices will likely be in focus again in May as we approach the expiration of this month’s futures contract.

Nonfarm Friday is a day that used to be quite exciting for trading desks and traders alike, although the last couple years have been somewhat sleepy. After hovering in a tight range for an extended period of time, US Nonfarm Payroll figures dropped by 700,000 in the April release.

The last year has not been a particularly easy one for brokers. Increasing costs associated with regulatory compliance, lack of volatility in the markets, falling revenues, tighter margins and now, on top of all of that, the impacts of COVID-19, are taking their toll.

The recent rise in market volatility has left all brokers susceptible to being taken advantage of by predatory traders but this is particularly true for startups and smaller brokers. While the opportunities for traders to attempt to exploit brokers have always existed, current market conditions have exacerbated the risk with strategies ranging from weekend gap loading to depth of book and spread arbitrage.

Volume totals in March matched the strong numbers from February, though daily figures trailed off late in the month. Daily profit figures also softened in the second half of the month, but monthly totals exceeded February as volatility in a broad range of markets brought strong early month results. After the turbulent market movements in February and March, volatility will likely continue while markets try to discover their true bottom. 

February was an excellent month for brokers as Covid-19 coronavirus fears brought volatility to a wide range of markets. Volumes were up substantially from January, with some brokers reaching record monthly totals.

Profits were also robust, driven primarily by late month declines in stock indices and gold. With the uncertainty surrounding coronavirus continuing, the volatility may persist well into March, if not longer.