IS Risk Analytics' View From the Desk - June 2021
June was a rocky month for most brokers as an overall lack of volatility in markets depressed both volumes and profits. Most of the month’s revenues were concentrated around the US FOMC meeting mid-month. Gold was the main driver of profitability as brokers were positioned correctly while the price fell from over $1,900 to finish the month at $1,770
*Average Daily Volume represents the daily volume from ISRA customers for each day of the month divided by the average daily volume for the month. Each day is represented as a percent of the average.
** Average Daily B Book PnL represents the daily B Book PnL from ISRA customers for each day of the month divided by the average daily B Book PnL for the month. Each day is represented as a percent of the average.
Source: IS Risk Analytics Database. Past Performance is not necessarily indicative of future results
Japan is now considering banning all spectators from the Olympic games, overseas spectators had already been banned. Authorities are also expected to declare a state of emergency for Tokyo in an attempt to contain coronavirus infections. Nationwide, only 15% of Japanese citizens are fully vaccinated ahead of the July 23 start of the games.
European economies are also on the road to recovery following increases in vaccination rates and the lifting of Covid restrictions. The European Commission now projects GDP to return to pre-pandemic levels in the last quarter of 2021, a quarter earlier than was previously forecast.
With the majority of covid related restrictions now removed and the economy fueled by pent up demand, experts are now revising prior projections for the US economy this year. The IMF now projects 2021 US growth at 7.0%, up from its April projection of 4.6%. If that figure is correct, it would be the fastest growth pace for the US economy since 1984.