IS Risk Analytics' View From the Desk - July 2020
After a relatively quiet start to the month, the second half of July brought strong profits for brokers, allowing most to far exceed the results seen in June. Although volumes were only up marginally from the prior month, revenues were robust because of broad-based USD selling and the late month rally in metals. By the beginning of August, metals had reached all time highs and EURUSD was at a level not seen for 16 months.
*Average Daily Volume represents the daily volume from ISRA customers for each day of the month divided by the average daily volume for the month. Each day is represented as a percent of the average.
** Average Daily B Book PnL represents the daily B Book PnL from ISRA customers for each day of the month divided by the average daily B Book PnL for the month. Each day is represented as a percent of the average.
Source: IS Risk Analytics Database. Past Performance is not necessarily indicative of future results
US President Donald Trump stated in July that he is not interested in beginning a second round of trade negotiations with China following the phase one deal struck in January. He also indicated that tariffs on Chinese goods will remain in place until a phase 2 deal is finalized. Later in the month, President Trump threatened a crackdown on Chinese tech companies including potentially banning TikTok from the United States.
European nations also posted grim GDP figures for the second quarter. In response to the impact of the virus, EU leaders finalized a €750 billion coronavirus fiscal package in July following extended negotiations. The plan includes low interest loans and grants to some of the hardest hit member nations. The deal will still need to pass through the European Parliament and be ratified by all member states.
The US economy contracted at a 32.9% annual rate in the second quarter of 2020, the worst drop on record. Although the US labor market is beginning to show signs of recovery, the country is still down millions of jobs as a result of the impact of the coronavirus. Congress has been debating another round of stimulus measures, but at this time has been unable to reach agreement on the legislation.